Bitcoin's growth to $200,000 by the end of the year is unlikely, analysts say
Date: 2025-08-28 Author: Gabriel Deangelo Categories: CRYPTO PAYMENTS
The latest 10x Research report notes that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by the end of the year is only 54%, while analysts remain cautiously pessimistic. The reasons for this forecast are the slowdown in institutional investment, massive sell-offs by miners, and a traditionally weak third quarter, when Bitcoin usually shows low dynamics.
CryptoQuant data confirms the alarming sentiment in the market: the Bitcoin buy-sell ratio dropped to -0.945, indicating the predominance of sellers. Analyst Gaah points out that similar values were observed in November 2021 before a significant correction.
The Polymarket forecast platform also reflects the skepticism of market participants: only 9% of users believe that Bitcoin will reach $200,000, while a more realistic target is $125,000 with a probability of 71%. Economist Timothy Peterson offered a more optimistic scenario, predicting Bitcoin to grow to $160,000 by the end of the year. His assessment was based on historical data: in 70% of cases from the end of August to the end of December, the first cryptocurrency shows an average return of about 44%. Peterson emphasized that this forecast is indicative, excluding years with abnormal market conditions - 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022.
At the time of publication of the article, Bitcoin is trading around $ 111,900. Analysts recall that at the end of August, a repeat of the pattern of the second quarter was observed, when the price of the asset reached $ 112,000 and then fell to $ 98,000, which indicates the possibility of short-term volatility.
Thus, despite individual growth forecasts, most experts agree that the probability of a rapid jump in Bitcoin to $ 200,000 is extremely small. More realistic targets are in the range of $ 125,000 - $ 160,000, and current market indicators indicate investor caution and sellers dominance.
As investors evaluate the prospects of the first cryptocurrency, it is important to consider not only technical indicators and historical patterns, but also current macroeconomic conditions that may influence market dynamics in the remaining months of the year.
