Arthur Hayes: Tether's strategy depends on Fed policy and could weaken USDT stability
Date: 2025-12-01 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his opinion on the state of Tether's reserves, emphasizing that the company is building its strategy with an eye on future decisions by the US Federal Reserve. According to the entrepreneur, the audit of the USDT stablecoin issuer reflects the expectation of a key rate cut, and this is the assumption underlying the company's current financial model. However, such dependence could result in a reduction in revenue if the Fed's forecasts are not met.
Hayes noted that Tether is actively increasing its gold and Bitcoin reserves, viewing them as a safe haven against a decline in the dollar's value. This approach, in his opinion, helps offset a possible decline in profits from interest-bearing instruments. However, the expert believes this strategy is vulnerable. If Bitcoin and gold simultaneously lose around a third of their value, the company's capital could be wiped out. In this case, USDT, the largest stablecoin on the market, theoretically risks losing solvency.
Besides financial pressure, Hayes anticipates increased scrutiny from major holders and exchanges. He says they may demand access to real-time data on Tether's reserves to verify the asset's reliability. Such a situation, he believes, will inevitably attract the attention of traditional media, potentially increasing market tension.
Despite the risks raised, the company's reports show a significant increase in profits. At the end of the third quarter, Tether acquired approximately $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, and total net profit since the beginning of the year reached $10 billion. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed in a comment to Bloomberg that the company expects to end 2025 with a profit of $15 billion.
Furthermore, Jefferies analysts note that Tether is among the world's largest holders of gold outside the central bank system. By the end of September 2025, its reserves reached 116 tons—a volume comparable to those of Hungary and South Korea. The company is also developing tokenized gold as a separate investment product segment, including the XAUT stablecoin, which is backed by physical gold reserves.
Thus, Tether's strategic focus on precious metals and cryptocurrencies paves the way for long-term interest rate independence, but simultaneously increases market risks. Arthur Hayes emphasizes that the future sustainability of USDT will depend on the performance of gold and Bitcoin, as well as the company's ability to withstand macroeconomic fluctuations.
