An economist assessed the chances of another major crypto market crash as low.
Date: 2025-11-24 Author: Henry Casey Categories: BUSINESS
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden stated that the current state of the cryptocurrency market is far from the extreme scenarios that typically precede major crashes. In the What Bitcoin Did podcast, she emphasized that the sector has not yet reached a stage of mass euphoria, which reduces the risk of sudden capitulation.
Alden noted that the current cycle differs from previous ones and is increasingly driven by the macroeconomic situation and institutional investor interest rather than the typical four-year cycles associated with Bitcoin halvings. She suggests that the market may develop over a more drawn-out period than classical models predict.
Alden's approach is supported by other industry experts. For example, Bitwise Investment Director Matt Hougan previously stated that a strict four-year cycle is unlikely and that a prolonged period of active market movement can be expected in the coming years. Meanwhile, Vinit Budki, head of Sigma Capital, admits that Bitcoin could fall by 65-70% within two years, demonstrating the opposite view.
The economist also noted that market movements rarely match traders' extreme expectations. According to her, actual results are often less dramatic than both optimists and pessimists predict. Cautious sentiment currently dominates the market: after reaching an all-time high in October, Bitcoin has fallen to around $82,000, and investors have once again begun to discuss potential risks.
Alden placed particular emphasis on the danger of viewing bull cycles as inevitable. She emphasized that the market is not obligated to repeat historical patterns, and growth is never guaranteed. This approach helps investors develop realistic strategies and avoid excessive expectations.
Despite the current downturn, the economist remains moderately optimistic about the long-term outlook. She expects Bitcoin to return to around $100,000 by 2026, with new all-time highs possible in either 2026 or 2027.
It's worth noting that Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki recently announced the sale of $2.25 million worth of his Bitcoin.
Therefore, experts emphasize the importance of a sober assessment of the market situation and caution against overconfidence in a repeat of past cycles, focusing on macroeconomic factors and the long-term investment outlook.
